4067 Dead
2008-05-07 05:58:25 UTC
It May Be Over
Voters unimpressed with Rush, tax holidays or McCain
© Bryan Zepp Jamieson
http://www.zeppscommentaries.com/Election2008/Ind-NC.html
5/6/08
At Hillary Clintons victory speech in Indiana, Bill Clinton looked
decidedly downcast. Chelsea Clinton was off camera, but BBS presenter
Katty Kaye reported that she looked on the verge of tears. There was a
telling moment in her victory speech when she said, I win, he wins,
he wins, I win. No matter what happens, I will work for the nominee of
the Democratic party because we must win in November. And I know that
Senator Obama feels the same way. That sounds more like a concession
speech, and it may well be one.
I suspect a lot of people will go to bed tonight convinced that
Hillary did win Indiana, and perhaps she did. But normally, when there
is a 4 point margin between candidates with 87% of precincts in, its
time to release the balloons, give the speech, and congratulate the
loser on a fine effort.
But its not quite over in Indiana. Two counties have no returns at
all. One of them is Lake County, which adjoins the small hamlet of
Chicago, in Obamas home state of Illinois. It features the
medium-sized city of Gary, Indiana. Its expected to go heavily for
Obama. The other is Union County, just up the road from Cincinnati.
Correction: Lake County just reported well after midnight their time,
and with 28% of precincts counted, Obama is leading 75%-25%.
No, Indiana isnt settled yet.
The BBC is also reporting that their sources are telling them that
some 50 superdelegates are expected to announce their intention of
supporting Obama at the convention.
On the web, Ive been amusing myself reading the whines from right
wingers who are bemoaning the fact that Rush Limbaughs Operation
Chaos, the effort to stuff Democratic ballot boxes by Republican
voters in order to keep the race going, had failed so miserably this
time. CNN reported, Roughly one in ten of the states Democratic
primary voters were Republican and that group did vote for Hillary
Clinton, 53 to 47 percent over Barack Obama. But hold on: registered
Democrats, who made up two-thirds of Tuesdays primary voters, gave
roughly the same edge to Clinton, 53 to 45 percent. Only Independents
who made up about a quarter of the electorate voted for Obama, 53
to 47 percent.
One turd from North Carolina, clearly bitter and distraught, sniveled
that he was apologizing for his state, and all the racists in it that
supported Obama. That presumably would be African-American racists,
who mostly supported Obama. They proved they would never vote for a
white candidate in 2000 and 2004, when they supported Gore and Kerry,
respectively, by even bigger margins.
Damn, I love listening to right wingers whine.
As Im typing all this, I see that only two points separate the two
candidates in Indiana now. If Hillary manages to lose Indiana, or ends
up in what would be an effective tie, it would be a death knell for
her campaign.
The other day, I predicted that Obama would win North Carolina by 9%
and Hillary would win Indiana by 5%. But then some polls came out, and
they showed a couple of interesting results. The first was that with
the exception of the GOP-friendly Rasmussen, they all showed that a
majority of voters didnt think the Reverend Wright issue had done
Obama any harm and even those that did were openly disgusted with the
media for blowing it up into such an issue.
The second was when I noticed that three out of four voters were
totally unimpressed with the gas tax holiday that both Hillary and
McCain had been promoting. The public figured out that it would do
them far more harm than good, and if the oil companies didnt simply
raise their prices and turn the tax holiday into their own little
windfall, the best they could hope to save was about ten dollars a
month. Some even realized that when they tanked up at the station, the
tax portion was the only money spent that might actually come back and
benefit them some way. The polls also showed Obama making inroads with
women voters and with blue-collar Caucasian voters.
It didnt help Hillary when McCain made another of his profoundly
stupid remarks. When told that three out of four economists thought
the tax holiday was a very bad idea, he said, Oh, I dont pay any
attention to economists. This probably isnt the brightest response
to make in reply to a question about an economic matter, especially
when the public is paying close attention, and even though it wasnt
HER stupid gaffe, McCains idiocy rubbed off on her anyway.
Political pandering consists of sounding like a fool in order to
convince the public that you are one of them. BAD political pandering
consists of sending the message that you think the only way to be one
with the public is by sounding like a fool, and thats what McCain
did. Hillary just had the misfortune to be in the immediate vicinity
when McCain laid that egg.
Its fun watching the results trickle in from Indiana. If Obama DOES
get 50%+1 of the vote (what in GOP circles is called acclamation and
is how they wound up with McCain as their standard-bearer), it would
only make a difference of one or two delegates. But the psychological
impact would be magnified, both by the fact that Hillary had regarded
Indiana as a safe state just two months ago, and the whole hothouse
atmosphere of media panting and gasping that has surrounded the state.
In the long run, and even in the short run, its of far more import if
the BBC report is accurate and Obama does pick up fifty super
delegates in the next day or so. That would give him about 1,870 (he
has 1,819 now) delegates, and he only needs 2,025 to win. Hillary
presently has 1,668.
Of course, Michigan and Florida WILL be sending delegates to the
convention, and we wont know until next month what kinds of terms
will be used to select them. Now, thats an even bigger chunk than the
unpledged superdelegates.
However, by June, there will only be a couple of minor primaries left,
and there will be strong pressure, both on the superdelegates and the
party selectors in those two states, to reflect the will of the voters
over all. Presently, that would work to Obamas advantage.
I would imagine that Hillary Clinton will sit down with her family and
her top advisors tomorrow and discuss where they go from here. She
doesnt want to disappoint her supporters, but she has to know that if
she waits too long, shell be seen as a spoiler, and possibly as
another Ralph Nader.
--
"Now, by the way, any time you hear the United States government
talking
about wiretap, it requires -- a wiretap requires a court order.
Nothing has
changed, by the way. When we're talking about chasing down terrorists,
we're
talking about getting a court order before we do so"
-George W. Bush, April 20, 2004
Not dead, in jail, or a slave? Thank a liberal!
Pay your taxes so the rich don't have to.
http://www.zeppscommentaries.com
For news feed, http://yahoogroups/subscribe/zepps_news
For essays (please contribute!)
http:yahoogroups/subscribe/zepps_essays
--
What do you call a Republican with a conscience?
An ex-Republican.
http://www.balloon-juice.com/?p=8827 (From Yang, AthD (h.c)
"Prosperity and peace are in the balance," -- Putsch, not admitting that he's against both
Putsch: leading America to asymetric warfare since 2001
Not dead, in jail, or a slave? Thank a liberal!
Pay your taxes so the rich don't have to.
For the finest in liberal/leftist commentary,
http://www.zeppscommentaries.com
For news feed (free, 10-20 articles a day)
Zepps_News-***@yahoogroups.com
For essays (donations accepted, 2 articles/week)
Zepps_essays-***@yahoogroups.com
a.a. #2211 -- Bryan Zepp Jamieson
Voters unimpressed with Rush, tax holidays or McCain
© Bryan Zepp Jamieson
http://www.zeppscommentaries.com/Election2008/Ind-NC.html
5/6/08
At Hillary Clintons victory speech in Indiana, Bill Clinton looked
decidedly downcast. Chelsea Clinton was off camera, but BBS presenter
Katty Kaye reported that she looked on the verge of tears. There was a
telling moment in her victory speech when she said, I win, he wins,
he wins, I win. No matter what happens, I will work for the nominee of
the Democratic party because we must win in November. And I know that
Senator Obama feels the same way. That sounds more like a concession
speech, and it may well be one.
I suspect a lot of people will go to bed tonight convinced that
Hillary did win Indiana, and perhaps she did. But normally, when there
is a 4 point margin between candidates with 87% of precincts in, its
time to release the balloons, give the speech, and congratulate the
loser on a fine effort.
But its not quite over in Indiana. Two counties have no returns at
all. One of them is Lake County, which adjoins the small hamlet of
Chicago, in Obamas home state of Illinois. It features the
medium-sized city of Gary, Indiana. Its expected to go heavily for
Obama. The other is Union County, just up the road from Cincinnati.
Correction: Lake County just reported well after midnight their time,
and with 28% of precincts counted, Obama is leading 75%-25%.
No, Indiana isnt settled yet.
The BBC is also reporting that their sources are telling them that
some 50 superdelegates are expected to announce their intention of
supporting Obama at the convention.
On the web, Ive been amusing myself reading the whines from right
wingers who are bemoaning the fact that Rush Limbaughs Operation
Chaos, the effort to stuff Democratic ballot boxes by Republican
voters in order to keep the race going, had failed so miserably this
time. CNN reported, Roughly one in ten of the states Democratic
primary voters were Republican and that group did vote for Hillary
Clinton, 53 to 47 percent over Barack Obama. But hold on: registered
Democrats, who made up two-thirds of Tuesdays primary voters, gave
roughly the same edge to Clinton, 53 to 45 percent. Only Independents
who made up about a quarter of the electorate voted for Obama, 53
to 47 percent.
One turd from North Carolina, clearly bitter and distraught, sniveled
that he was apologizing for his state, and all the racists in it that
supported Obama. That presumably would be African-American racists,
who mostly supported Obama. They proved they would never vote for a
white candidate in 2000 and 2004, when they supported Gore and Kerry,
respectively, by even bigger margins.
Damn, I love listening to right wingers whine.
As Im typing all this, I see that only two points separate the two
candidates in Indiana now. If Hillary manages to lose Indiana, or ends
up in what would be an effective tie, it would be a death knell for
her campaign.
The other day, I predicted that Obama would win North Carolina by 9%
and Hillary would win Indiana by 5%. But then some polls came out, and
they showed a couple of interesting results. The first was that with
the exception of the GOP-friendly Rasmussen, they all showed that a
majority of voters didnt think the Reverend Wright issue had done
Obama any harm and even those that did were openly disgusted with the
media for blowing it up into such an issue.
The second was when I noticed that three out of four voters were
totally unimpressed with the gas tax holiday that both Hillary and
McCain had been promoting. The public figured out that it would do
them far more harm than good, and if the oil companies didnt simply
raise their prices and turn the tax holiday into their own little
windfall, the best they could hope to save was about ten dollars a
month. Some even realized that when they tanked up at the station, the
tax portion was the only money spent that might actually come back and
benefit them some way. The polls also showed Obama making inroads with
women voters and with blue-collar Caucasian voters.
It didnt help Hillary when McCain made another of his profoundly
stupid remarks. When told that three out of four economists thought
the tax holiday was a very bad idea, he said, Oh, I dont pay any
attention to economists. This probably isnt the brightest response
to make in reply to a question about an economic matter, especially
when the public is paying close attention, and even though it wasnt
HER stupid gaffe, McCains idiocy rubbed off on her anyway.
Political pandering consists of sounding like a fool in order to
convince the public that you are one of them. BAD political pandering
consists of sending the message that you think the only way to be one
with the public is by sounding like a fool, and thats what McCain
did. Hillary just had the misfortune to be in the immediate vicinity
when McCain laid that egg.
Its fun watching the results trickle in from Indiana. If Obama DOES
get 50%+1 of the vote (what in GOP circles is called acclamation and
is how they wound up with McCain as their standard-bearer), it would
only make a difference of one or two delegates. But the psychological
impact would be magnified, both by the fact that Hillary had regarded
Indiana as a safe state just two months ago, and the whole hothouse
atmosphere of media panting and gasping that has surrounded the state.
In the long run, and even in the short run, its of far more import if
the BBC report is accurate and Obama does pick up fifty super
delegates in the next day or so. That would give him about 1,870 (he
has 1,819 now) delegates, and he only needs 2,025 to win. Hillary
presently has 1,668.
Of course, Michigan and Florida WILL be sending delegates to the
convention, and we wont know until next month what kinds of terms
will be used to select them. Now, thats an even bigger chunk than the
unpledged superdelegates.
However, by June, there will only be a couple of minor primaries left,
and there will be strong pressure, both on the superdelegates and the
party selectors in those two states, to reflect the will of the voters
over all. Presently, that would work to Obamas advantage.
I would imagine that Hillary Clinton will sit down with her family and
her top advisors tomorrow and discuss where they go from here. She
doesnt want to disappoint her supporters, but she has to know that if
she waits too long, shell be seen as a spoiler, and possibly as
another Ralph Nader.
--
"Now, by the way, any time you hear the United States government
talking
about wiretap, it requires -- a wiretap requires a court order.
Nothing has
changed, by the way. When we're talking about chasing down terrorists,
we're
talking about getting a court order before we do so"
-George W. Bush, April 20, 2004
Not dead, in jail, or a slave? Thank a liberal!
Pay your taxes so the rich don't have to.
http://www.zeppscommentaries.com
For news feed, http://yahoogroups/subscribe/zepps_news
For essays (please contribute!)
http:yahoogroups/subscribe/zepps_essays
--
What do you call a Republican with a conscience?
An ex-Republican.
http://www.balloon-juice.com/?p=8827 (From Yang, AthD (h.c)
"Prosperity and peace are in the balance," -- Putsch, not admitting that he's against both
Putsch: leading America to asymetric warfare since 2001
Not dead, in jail, or a slave? Thank a liberal!
Pay your taxes so the rich don't have to.
For the finest in liberal/leftist commentary,
http://www.zeppscommentaries.com
For news feed (free, 10-20 articles a day)
Zepps_News-***@yahoogroups.com
For essays (donations accepted, 2 articles/week)
Zepps_essays-***@yahoogroups.com
a.a. #2211 -- Bryan Zepp Jamieson